Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc42c…61a3 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+4%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 42% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤90d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -6.4%
all 4 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 0% -6.4%
10% -14.8% 0% -15.3%
15% -23.1% 0% -23.5%
20% -30.6% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage13d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $332 +$1 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $470 +$35 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $897 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $436 +$37 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $332 22m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $332 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $470 12d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $464 12d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $464 12d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $436 13d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $435 13d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $433 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records