Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc42e…edbd sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,384 (+12%) realized +$16,119 · open +$1,265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%55W / 53L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$984per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Fees−$1,634est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$24,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$6,156
other 23% −$1,720
crypto 0% +$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +19.6% +8.2% 52% 26% -10.4%
≤30d 75 +41.1% +27.7% 51% 29% -22.0%
≤90d 108 +30.4% +17.9% 51% 31% -16.3%
all 108 +30.4% +17.9% 51% 31% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.9% 31% -16.3%
10% +6.7% 29% -24.3%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 26% -31.6%
20% -13.1% 23% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$579 vs −$780 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$24,072
Realized+$16,119
Unrealized+$1,265
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses55 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,634
Open positions71
Markets (closed)108 / 151
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$984
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,660 $1,739 +$78 (+5%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1,020 $1,592 +$572 (+56%)
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,673 $1,571 −$102 (-6%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $813 $1,353 +$540 (+66%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1,138 $1,154 +$16 (+1%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,291 $1,153 −$139 (-11%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,109 $1,114 +$6 (+1%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $878 $917 +$39 (+4%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $366 $906 +$540 (+148%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $591 $905 +$314 (+53%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $801 $901 +$100 (+13%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 70¢ 68¢ $700 $685 −$15 (-2%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $744 $674 −$70 (-9%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 64¢ $670 $645 −$25 (-4%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $468 $602 +$134 (+29%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $498 $558 +$60 (+12%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $540 $538 −$3 (-0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 50¢ $530 $505 −$25 (-5%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals No 52¢ 50¢ $520 $505 −$15 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $490 $485 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 50¢ 46¢ $500 $465 −$35 (-7%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $335 $414 +$79 (+24%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $405 $411 +$6 (+1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $345 $341 −$5 (-1%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals No 44¢ 43¢ $330 $322 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $362 +$33 +9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $990 +$10 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $680 −$680 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1,560 +$1,440 +92%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$900 +900%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,017 +$89 +9%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $966 +$34 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $600 +$400 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $400 +$600 +150%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,590 +$410 +26%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $540 −$540 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,020 −$20 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,030 −$30 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,840 −$1,180 -64%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,800 +$206 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,600 +$400 +15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,020 −$20 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $881 −$493 -56%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,410 −$230 -10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $670 −$100 -15%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $999 +$81 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $570 +$430 +75%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,020 −$20 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $760 +$240 +32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,441 −$371 -26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $690 −$135 -20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,000 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,514 −$14 -1%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $710 +$290 +41%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,970 +$530 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,457 −$330 -7%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,205 +$830 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,770 −$1,030 -58%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $956 +$44 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,979 +$21 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,072 −$532 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $15 6m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $11 8m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $105 13m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 14m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 23m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $35 27m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 28m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 35m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $11 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $18 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $110 1h
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $4 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $69 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $312 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $91 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $0 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $10 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $438 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 52¢ $79 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,072.38 · official $24,024.79 (match) · 3500 history records