Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc430…1d90 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$83 (-11%) realized −$150 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$25
sports 34% −$120
crypto 14% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.1% -29.6% 44% 39% -23.1%
≤30d 18 -22.1% -29.6% 44% 39% -23.1%
≤90d 18 -22.1% -29.6% 44% 39% -23.1%
all 18 -22.1% -29.6% 44% 39% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 39% -23.1%
10% -36.3% 39% -30.4%
15% -42.5% 33% -37.2%
20% -48.1% 28% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $98 $165 +$67 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$47 +77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$14 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 +$6 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $41 −$20 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +71%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$34 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $25 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $103 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $108 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 16h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 17¢ $21 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $68 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 18h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 29h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $21 29h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $21 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.24 · official $164.99 (match) · 37 history records