Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc430…1ebf sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash accountP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1930 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$619,076 (+82%) realized +$653,510 · open −$34,434
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108,437per market
Trades / day1929.7pace
Fees−$6,456est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$338,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$82,066
sports 45% +$194,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1930 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤30d 12 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 12 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 25% -12.9%
all 12 -37.8% -43.7% 25% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1929.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 25% -12.9%
10% -49.1% 25% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -54.0% 25% -28.9%
20% -58.6% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
427.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159,639 vs −$56,901 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$338,172
Realized+$653,510
Unrealized−$34,434
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6,456
Open positions13
Markets (closed)12 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108,437
Trades / day1929.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $164,998 $162,498 −$2,500 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 60¢ 60¢ $60,000 $60,500 +$500 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52,363 $54,608 +$2,244 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27,013 $21,554 −$5,459 (-20%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 22¢ $17,000 $10,750 −$6,250 (-37%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17,297 $8,613 −$8,684 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6,722 $5,000 −$1,722 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 24¢ $9,826 $4,984 −$4,842 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7,200 $4,050 −$3,150 (-44%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4,498 $3,500 −$998 (-22%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1,891 $1,344 −$548 (-29%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $3,652 $635 −$3,016 (-83%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $146 $136 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $54,000 −$54,000 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $193,498 −$193,498 -100%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20,778 −$20,778 -100%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 22 $28,191 −$28,191 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 22 $30,080 −$30,080 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $17,141 −$17,141 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $183,000 +$117,000 +64%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $70,000 +$130,000 +186%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $754 −$754 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $118,081 +$231,919 +196%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $162,229 −$167,571 -103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $298 45m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $62 45m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $90 47m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $160 49m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $24 50m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $19 50m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $9 52m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $29 54m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $8 54m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $30 54m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $9 56m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $36 57m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $15 57m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $15 57m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $45 58m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $180 59m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $45 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $93 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $8 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $11 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $27 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $8 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $4 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338,172.31 · official $338,172.31 (match) · 3000 history records