Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc435…1923 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-1%) realized −$78 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%30W / 16L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$177
14 days−$212
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$655
other 48% −$973
crypto 2% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 73% -7.5%
≤30d 45 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 56% -10.8%
≤90d 46 -5.3% -14.3% 65% 54% -11.0%
all 46 -5.3% -14.3% 65% 54% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 54% -11.0%
10% -22.5% 41% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 20% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$123 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,045
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses30 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage32d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Austria 80¢ 80¢ $1,046 $1,039 −$7 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $748 +$172 +23%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $582 +$69 +12%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$16 +62%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 −$176 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $423 −$421 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $453 +$115 +25%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $503 +$114 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$147 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $497 +$65 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $367 +$114 +31%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $302 +$78 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $403 −$397 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $502 +$76 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$111 +37%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $252 +$95 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $303 +$73 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$37 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$20 +10%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $453 +$69 +15%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 +$38 +25%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $244 +$13 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $89 −$14 -16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $137 −$12 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $70 −$9 -13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $74 −$12 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $136 −$7 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$1 +1%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 80¢ $1,052 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 98¢ $920 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 77¢ $133 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $446 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $302 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $101 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $582 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $152 33h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 35h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 9¢ $26 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 37h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $202 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $322 37h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 86¢ $143 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 62¢ $90 41h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 81¢ $201 41h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $200 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $51 41h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $101 41h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 78¢ $252 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $617 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $400 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $503 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $562 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $480 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $497 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $367 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.11 · official $1,045.11 (match) · 118 history records