Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc436…1d00 politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% $0
world 24% +$5
other 16% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +3.8% -6.1% 88% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 8 +3.8% -6.1% 88% 12% -8.2%
all 50 +0.4% -9.1% 46% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $60 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $11 +$3 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $39 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 14 $14 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on Sep Sep 18 $19 −$2 -10%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $47 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $47 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $13 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $12 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $47 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $47 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $24 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $39 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 28d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 241d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 241d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 93¢ $26 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records