Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc43b…63b4 other 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$13
other 21% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$23
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -42.0%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 39 -7.7% -16.5% 15% 0% -10.9%
all 48 -6.4% -15.3% 17% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage630d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $67 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $322 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $2,104 −$5 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $793 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $576 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 38h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $7 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $54 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $8 32d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.25 · official $17.25 (match) · 319 history records