Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc43e…1c73 other 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+23%) realized +$45 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$15
other 34% −$8
finance 14% +$46
world 12% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.8% -29.3% 33% 33% -28.0%
≤30d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 44% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 13 +30.2% +17.8% 46% 46% +17.8%
all 13 +30.2% +17.8% 46% 46% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 46% +17.8%
10% +6.5% 46% +6.5%
15% -3.8% 46% -3.8%
20% -13.2% 46% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage109d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $10 +$18 +180%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$14 +285%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Apr 01 $25 +$32 +127%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.18 · official $33.18 (match) · 79 history records