Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc440…5331 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$83 (-9%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -24.4%
≤30d 12 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -24.4%
≤90d 12 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -24.4%
all 20 -7.2% -16.0% 85% 30% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 30% -22.6%
10% -24.0% 0% -30.0%
15% -31.4% 0% -36.7%
20% -38.1% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$69 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage133d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 1AM ET Feb 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 7PM ET Feb 13 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9AM ET Feb 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7AM ET Feb 12 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET Feb 12 $50 +$7 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5PM ET Feb 12 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET Feb 11 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 131d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $54 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 132d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $42 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $57 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records