Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc440…2e0e other 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$462 (-1%) realized −$386 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate68%476W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$39
14 days−$13
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$156
world 24% +$152
politics 22% −$176
economics 10% +$101
sports 7% −$286
crypto 6% −$59
tech 4% +$17
finance 1% +$2
culture 1% +$20
weather 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +15.1% +4.1% 53% 42% -14.5%
≤30d 69 +3.5% -6.3% 54% 41% -11.2%
≤90d 125 -7.2% -16.0% 51% 38% -18.8%
all 696 -2.6% -11.9% 68% 44% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 44% -10.3%
10% -20.3% 20% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 9% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses476 / 220
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions27
Markets (closed)696 / 723
History coverage702d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 97¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 78¢ 84¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 68¢ 67¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 74¢ 76¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 70¢ 72¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 43¢ $8 $26 +$18 (+231%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Under 64¢ 74¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $7 $17 +$9 (+130%)
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 81¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-52%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-41%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-55%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-80%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30? Yes 74¢ 6¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 60¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Yes 45¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$17 +57%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$11 +56%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$13 +43%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $13 +$1 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$6 +40%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$9 +57%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$7 +44%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $12 +$5 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $14 +$4 +29%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 +$15 +468%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$14 +659%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $146 −$72 -50%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 13 $100 +$20 +20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $8 +$5 +56%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 10 $89 +$3 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 +$35 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $20 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 64¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $48 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $18 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $25 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 63¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $43 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $15 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $15 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL No 70¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL No 68¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 68¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $13 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $20 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $30 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $30 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $15 41h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $15 41h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $15 41h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $15 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.04 · official $727.82 (match) · 2042 history records