Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc444…20da sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,249 (-9%) realized −$19,412 · open +$1,163
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%72W / 92L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,164per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$564est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,865
7 days−$17,200
14 days−$19,943
30 days−$19,599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$11,800
other 13% −$325
culture 3% −$4,938
politics 1% −$60
crypto 0% −$841
tech 0% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.1% -29.5% 14% 14% -59.4%
≤30d 26 -15.1% -23.2% 42% 42% -44.4%
≤90d 73 -28.6% -35.4% 36% 33% -42.5%
all 164 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 41% -18.7%
10% -23.6% 37% -26.5%
15% -31.0% 34% -33.6%
20% -37.7% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,026) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$777 vs −$817 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$5,857
Realized−$19,412
Unrealized+$1,163
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses72 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$564
Open positions3
Markets (closed)164 / 167
History coverage209d
Avg bet$1,164
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 68¢ $2,553 $3,591 +$1,037 (+41%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Under 53¢ 56¢ $2,120 $2,240 +$120 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $693 −$186 -27%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,428 −$485 -20%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,120 −$907 -29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $16,980 −$16,809 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,730 −$478 -13%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $3,599 +$1,801 +50%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $834 −$136 -16%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $853 −$847 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $2,654 −$2,623 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $1,456 +$1,230 +84%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,936 +$1,384 +72%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $210 +$216 +103%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 18.5 Jun 08 $2,811 +$2,389 +85%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $2,471 +$325 +13%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $1,071 −$1,071 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $1,807 −$1,783 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1,038 −$1,026 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $910 +$463 +51%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $195 −$192 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $506 +$314 +62%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $300 +$220 +73%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $390 −$99 -25%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 May 03 $452 −$448 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $403 +$145 +36%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 28 $1,207 +$329 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Apr 03 $1,051 +$620 +59%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,000 −$4 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Mar 31 $177 −$175 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 25 $637 +$147 +23%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 25 $7,800 −$312 -4%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) Mar 24 $64 +$136 +212%
Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 Mar 24 $635 −$635 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 23 $390 −$390 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Mar 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 23 $180 +$320 +177%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 163.5 Mar 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Mar 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5 Mar 23 $211 −$211 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 23 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 23 $568 −$568 -100%
AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 23 $3,357 −$3,357 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,150 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $2,593 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $507 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $924 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,164 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,515 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2,720 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4,767 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5,034 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,944 19h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,973 19h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,347 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,008 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,093 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3,599 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $699 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $848 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,019 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,048 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $853 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 61¢ $2,654 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $199 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $116 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,081 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $986 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $463 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $834 9d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,112 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,856.61 · official $6,723.00 · 733 history records