Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc444…2203 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$4
sports 25% −$2
other 20% −$4
crypto 8% −$2
world 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 214 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage173d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 25 $157 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $121 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $203 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $107 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 6h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 7d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 7d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL No 97¢ $47 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY No 97¢ $47 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 29d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 29d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 37d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 99¢ $1 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 115d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $1 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 117d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $24 118d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $18 118d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $47 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $47 118d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 118d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 118d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 118d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $43 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $43 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 743 history records