Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc447…5259 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$235 (-9%) realized −$190 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$76
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$215
other 25% +$24
sports 14% −$30
politics 2% −$50
tech 1% −$3
economics 0% −$10
weather 0% +$14
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +30.4% +18.0% 42% 42% -22.5%
≤30d 35 +21.1% +9.5% 46% 46% -6.8%
≤90d 38 +11.5% +0.9% 42% 42% -9.7%
all 86 +12.9% +2.2% 47% 44% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 44% -18.7%
10% -7.6% 40% -26.5%
15% -16.5% 35% -33.6%
20% -24.7% 23% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 99
History coverage243d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 57¢ $250 $228 −$22 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$18 +343%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $87 −$85 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$6 +180%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +41%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $178 +$187 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Jun 16 $2 +$11 +558%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 25 $45 +$30 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 25 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $253 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 15h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $77 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 15h
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 15h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 18h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $3 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 18h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.57 · official $284.57 (match) · 186 history records