Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc44a…0f0e other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$252 (+2%) realized +$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$146
14 days−$255
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.3% -18.0% 22% 17% -13.1%
≤30d 58 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 17% -10.9%
≤90d 65 -9.9% -18.5% 34% 15% -12.3%
all 65 -9.9% -18.5% 34% 15% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 15% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 6% -20.7%
15% -33.4% 3% -28.3%
20% -40.0% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$26 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage32d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $433 −$39 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $334 −$52 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $63 −$17 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$9 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $323 +$56 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$4 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $349 −$26 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $280 +$30 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $205 +$69 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $351 −$57 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $649 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $207 −$49 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $166 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $276 −$28 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $348 −$49 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $481 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $118 −$41 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $166 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $559 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $81 +$24 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $88 −$29 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $106 −$34 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $171 +$14 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $472 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $897 −$9 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $204 +$21 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $240 −$38 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $99 −$68 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $241 +$333 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $229 −$19 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $528 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $29 +$6 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $509 −$25 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $232 −$50 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $331 +$44 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $112 −$21 -19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $155 +$32 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $228 −$82 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $596 −$16 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $84 −$20 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $53 1m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $45 2m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $60 8m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $28 8m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $120 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $82 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $66 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $86 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $53 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $94 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 959 history records