Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc44b…4048 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-4%) realized −$114 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$142
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$191
other 36% −$429
crypto 3% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +37.2% +24.2% 78% 56% +27.0%
≤30d 9 +37.2% +24.2% 78% 56% +27.0%
≤90d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 50% -17.0%
all 31 +8.0% -2.3% 61% 55% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 55% -12.2%
10% -11.6% 45% -20.6%
15% -20.2% 45% -28.3%
20% -28.0% 35% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$101 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage240d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Sharks 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $102 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $20 −$6 -30%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $71 +$46 +65%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 −$11 -52%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $22 +$23 +105%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $20 +$10 +51%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $492 −$323 -66%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner May 05 $243 +$124 +51%
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 May 03 $400 +$255 +64%
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla May 03 $102 −$95 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $141 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$2 +57%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Apr 29 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Valorant: Melilla Titans vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph Apr 28 $343 +$142 +41%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 13 $95 +$14 +15%
Valorant: Bonk vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 12 $130 +$180 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 21? Dec 21 $50 −$13 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 21 $50 +$61 +121%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Dec 21 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $228 −$41 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 03 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 31 $100 +$52 +52%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $80 +$35 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 54¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 45¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 37¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 43¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $51 16h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Yawara Esports 32¢ $14 19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 44¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $117 24h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $40 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 26¢ $10 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 52¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $36 27h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 100¢ $44 45h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag SELL Beşiktaş Esports 100¢ $104 45h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 93¢ $30 45h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Beşiktaş Esports 62¢ $27 2d
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 57¢ $25 2d
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 48¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 61¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 48¢ $22 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $169 50d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $492 50d
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner SELL GIANTX GC 99¢ $366 52d
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner BUY GIANTX GC 65¢ $243 52d
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 SELL KPI Gaming 100¢ $654 54d
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 BUY KPI Gaming 63¢ $303 55d
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla SELL DNSTY 3¢ $5 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 77 history records