Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc44d…935c sports 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$68,272 (+9%) realized +$66,297 · open +$1,975
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%145W / 90L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$2,912per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$2,930est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$84,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,486
7 days−$2,841
14 days−$8,997
30 days−$19,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$56,904
other 36% +$20,225
crypto 0% +$7
world 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.6% -35.4% 55% 48% -13.6%
≤30d 86 -25.0% -32.1% 56% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 235 +46.0% +32.1% 62% 53% +0.9%
all 235 +46.0% +32.1% 62% 53% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.1% 53% +0.9%
10% +19.5% 43% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here +7.9% 29% -17.6%
20% -2.7% 19% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$3,189) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +102% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,201 vs −$1,099 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$84,361
Realized+$66,297
Unrealized+$1,975
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses145 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2,930
Open positions14
Markets (closed)235 / 249
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$2,912
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $20,786 $22,099 +$1,314 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $21,074 $21,253 +$178 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $8,594 $8,606 +$12 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 83¢ 88¢ $8,014 $8,485 +$471 (+6%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $5,688 $5,770 +$82 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $5,043 $5,023 −$19 (-0%)
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J? No 80¢ 78¢ $3,600 $3,510 −$90 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 77¢ $2,490 $2,312 −$178 (-7%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 76¢ $2,070 $2,295 +$225 (+11%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,031 $2,030 −$2 (-0%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,286 $1,290 +$4 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 88¢ $992 $999 +$7 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 98¢ $587 $591 +$4 (+1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 60¢ $132 $100 −$32 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4,291 +$1,152 +27%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $824 +$103 +12%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,547 +$363 +24%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,777 −$1,777 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $211 +$53 +25%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,811 −$1,811 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,323 +$577 +44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11,487 +$1,238 +11%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $878 −$878 -100%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $259 −$259 -100%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $469 +$145 +31%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $483 +$113 +24%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $815 +$91 +11%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,962 +$925 +23%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8,567 +$1,133 +13%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $10,251 +$749 +7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $962 +$1,238 +129%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $397 +$303 +76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,340 +$310 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,106 −$2,106 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2,779 +$1,101 +40%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $241 −$241 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 22 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $404 +$19 +5%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $5,293 +$229 +4%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7,349 +$1,651 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,473 +$377 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$4 -6%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,462 +$2,438 +38%
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$8 +39%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4,711 −$4,711 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,637 +$1,213 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,520 +$730 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13,907 +$593 +4%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3,556 −$3,556 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7,327 +$1,673 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $44 6m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $132 6m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $48 11m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $55 38m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $187 41m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $10 42m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $7 52m
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J? BUY No 80¢ $3,583 57m
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J? BUY No 80¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $6,320 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $2,288 1h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $587 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1,703 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1,322 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $236 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $386 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $883 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $750 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $1,323 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $11,487 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $8,567 5d
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 78¢ $53 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $340 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 43¢ $962 5d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 15¢ $9 5d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 40¢ $16 5d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 15¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,360.65 · official $84,360.65 (match) · 3500 history records