Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc450…b764 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260 (-28%) realized −$258 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$251
sports 6% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -40.7%
≤30d 10 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -40.7%
≤90d 10 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -40.7%
all 10 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.8% 20% -40.7%
10% -63.6% 20% -46.4%
15% -67.1% 20% -51.5%
20% -70.4% 20% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$68 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 +$110 +107%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $123 +$169 +137%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $103 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $123 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 42h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $123 43h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.38 · official $133.38 (match) · 15 history records