Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc451…2609
tech · 43 markets active 99d ago
1.0score
+$85,489 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$79,195 · open +$5,643
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$36,701
Realized+$79,195
Unrealized+$5,643
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses32 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
Avg bet$9,706
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 78¢ 92¢ $31,057 $36,700 +$5,643 (+18%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 60¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? No 28¢ 0¢ $827 $0 −$827 (-100%)
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? No 32¢ 0¢ $4,417 $0 −$4,417 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 68¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $866 $0 −$866 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $8,127 $0 −$8,127 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3,927 $0 −$3,927 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31? Mar 03 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Mar 03 $290 +$88 +30%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Mar 03 $1,427 +$743 +52%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Mar 03 $8,258 +$1,896 +23%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $2,849 +$370 +13%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Jan 01 $4,418 −$4,417 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $220 +$283 +129%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $206 +$1,844 +896%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30? Dec 31 $166 +$7 +4%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 25 $9,783 −$827 -8%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 12 $19,299 +$3,247 +17%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Dec 10 $30,688 +$21,050 +69%
Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Dec 05 $1,154 +$226 +20%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 24 $5,689 +$979 +17%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025? Nov 22 $2,786 +$173 +6%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Nov 20 $223 +$87 +39%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 20 $5,201 +$496 +10%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 20 $19,530 +$5,069 +26%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Nov 13 $1,071 +$396 +37%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 12 $3,927 −$3,927 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Nov 09 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 06 $866 −$866 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Oct 28 $87 +$51 +58%
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31? Oct 27 $149 +$46 +31%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 26 $1,474 −$269 -18%
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31? Oct 26 $71 +$14 +20%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $73,326 +$41,526 +57%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Oct 21 $28,206 +$7,953 +28%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 13 $280 +$123 +44%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 13 $33,440 +$4,277 +13%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Oct 01 $545 +$307 +56%
OpenAI browser by September 30? Sep 18 $1,554 −$1,262 -81%
OpenAI browser by August 31? Sep 03 $8,477 +$1,183 +14%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $15,149 −$13,448 -89%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 08 $2,434 +$830 +34%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? Aug 08 $17,110 +$2,532 +15%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 08 $23,341 +$3,480 +15%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 06 $45,240 +$3,732 +8%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September? Aug 05 $11,223 +$1,338 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 73% +$76,201
culture 16% +$9,920
other 10% −$813
politics 0% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4,211 99d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,828 101d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $2 121d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $30 121d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $1 121d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $119 121d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $157 125d
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $54 125d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $102 158d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 158d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $121 158d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 159d
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $158 159d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $745 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $15 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $515 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $6 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $3 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $61 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $14 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? BUY No 81¢ $1,585 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $833 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $95 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $34 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $15 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $0 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $52 161d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $6 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 41 +73.5% +56.9% 78% 68% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.9% 68% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here +41.9% 44% +0.7%
15% +28.2% 27% -9.0%
20% +15.6% 20% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,700.62 · official $36,700.40 (match) · 1237 history records