Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc452…1ac6
crypto · 20 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$6 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 3 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 64¢ 81¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 22¢ 44¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+102%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +99%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$4
other 28% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 14h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 14h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 53% -7.4%
≤30d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 53% -7.4%
≤90d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 53% -7.4%
all 17 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 53% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 53% -7.4%
10% -20.0% 47% -16.3%
15% -27.7% 35% -24.4%
20% -34.8% 18% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.46 · official $14.43 · 33 history records