Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc45a…55de
sports · 57 markets active 0h ago
6.0score
+$3 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses37 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 93¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 90¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs MAGAZA (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 −$1 -17%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +47%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$6
crypto 27% −$3
other 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $5 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $2 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 36¢ $1 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $1 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +11.0% +0.4% 71% 67% -0.2%
≤30d 53 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 64% -0.4%
≤90d 53 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 64% -0.4%
all 53 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 64% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 64% -0.4%
10% -12.1% 47% -9.9%
15% -20.6% 32% -18.6%
20% -28.4% 15% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.45 · official $5.45 (match) · 116 history records