Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc45a…8d75 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%35W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
crypto 13% +$2
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses35 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage533d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $47 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 27 $5,495 −$6 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 13 $25 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Feb 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? Jan 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 11 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $61 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 122d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $62 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $60 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 210d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 100¢ $48 211d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $44 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 271d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $51 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $47 333d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 392d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,490 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.47 · official $66.47 (match) · 108 history records