Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C4 0xc45b…e767 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$255 (-39%) realized −$255 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%9W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day17.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-28.9%	-35.7%	36%	36%	-51.2%
≤30d	25	-28.9%	-35.7%	36%	36%	-51.2%
≤90d	25	-28.9%	-35.7%	36%	36%	-51.2%
all	25	-28.9%	-35.7%	36%	36%	-51.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.7%	36%	-51.2%
10%	-41.8%	32%	-55.9%
15%	-47.5%	28%	-60.1%
20%	-52.6%	12%	-64.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -34% → late -24% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$255

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses9 / 16

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day17.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$16	−$1	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 24	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 24	$209	−$70	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 24	$31	−$5	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$13	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 24	$10	+$5	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 24	$10	−$2	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$11	+214%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$13	+$3	+24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$9	+$4	+42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$18	−$7	-41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$12	+$5	+44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$18	+$4	+20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 23	$2	$0	-12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$8	+$4	+52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	+$3	+50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	73¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$139	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$209	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$16	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	80¢	$13	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	96¢	$13	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	67¢	$9	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$3	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records