Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc45b…f362 crypto 77 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$41
sports 30% +$67
other 6% −$43
tech 3% +$2
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +19.4% +8.0% 61% 52% -10.3%
≤30d 69 +19.4% +8.0% 61% 52% -10.3%
≤90d 69 +19.4% +8.0% 61% 52% -10.3%
all 69 +19.4% +8.0% 61% 52% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 52% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.3% 41% -18.9%
15% -11.7% 39% -26.7%
20% -20.4% 30% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 77
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +43%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a Jun 13 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$7 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $91 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $25 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $8 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 35h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 42h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $9 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 46¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 35¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.23 · official $111.23 (match) · 193 history records