Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc45e…9f60 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81 (-16%) realized −$71 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$32
sports 28% −$2
crypto 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 15 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 40% -15.2%
≤90d 15 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 40% -15.2%
all 15 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 40% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 40% -15.2%
10% -34.8% 33% -23.3%
15% -41.1% 13% -30.7%
20% -46.8% 13% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $87 $76 −$11 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 +$14 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $22 +$49 +216%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 +$19 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $32 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $87 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $73 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 SELL 88¢ $71 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 32h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 27¢ $22 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 52¢ $21 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY 45¢ $32 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.50 · official $95.50 (match) · 27 history records