Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc45f…2494 crypto 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,471 (-1%) realized −$1,495 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%314W / 135L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$447
7 days−$447
14 days−$447
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,516
other 10% −$469
world 1% −$426
sports 0% −$52
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 79% 71% -18.5%
≤30d 163 -0.5% -10.0% 77% 63% -7.5%
≤90d 378 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 57% -11.5%
all 449 -3.7% -12.9% 70% 55% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 55% -11.4%
10% -21.2% 37% -19.9%
15% -28.8% 21% -27.6%
20% -35.8% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$161 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$1,495
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses314 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage143d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $214 $238 +$24 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $191 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $653 +$149 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $481 +$171 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $479 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$47 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $189 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $231 +$142 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $424 +$49 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $247 +$131 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $736 −$736 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $358 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $296 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 02 $203 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $559 +$59 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $178 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $246 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $277 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 02 $299 +$68 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $113 −$100 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $232 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $703 +$346 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $67 +$23 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $346 +$97 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $119 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $235 +$169 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $465 +$447 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $331 −$331 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $309 −$304 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $314 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $17 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $13 +$4 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $216 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $191 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $802 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $653 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $481 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $479 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $204 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $189 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $373 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $231 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $243 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $473 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $208 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $215 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $309 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $247 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $336 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $364 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $736 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $358 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $37 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $296 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $203 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.51 · official $237.51 (match) · 1156 history records