Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc462…8e6a other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$3
other 31% −$1
sports 14% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.7% -7.0% 50% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 17% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 14% 0% -9.0%
all 74 -4.1% -13.2% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 68
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage374d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $76 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jan 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $145 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $71 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $145 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $75 $0 -1%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 22 $73 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 03 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 02 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Oct 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 19 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 35h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $71 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $73 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 43d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 108d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 126d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 138d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $71 139d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $71 143d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 143d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 145d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 148d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.99 · official $71.99 (match) · 369 history records