trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,406 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,407 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Warriors vs. Rockets | Mar 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 10 | $3 | +$4 | +133% |
| Sabres vs. Penguins | Mar 10 | $4 | +$3 | +92% |
| Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 19 | $1,245 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 19 | $1,246 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-02-12? | Feb 16 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? | Feb 16 | $3 | +$8 | +223% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? | Feb 16 | $4 | +$7 | +178% |
| Will FC Lorient win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 10 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? | Feb 03 | $4 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-22? | Jan 28 | $4 | +$4 | +89% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 16 | +22.0% | +10.4% | 50% | 38% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +10.4% | 38% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -0.2% | 38% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -9.8% | 31% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -18.7% | 31% | -33.2% |