Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc465…31b9 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$166 (-5%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$165
world 37% +$2
other 13% −$6
politics 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -52.7% -57.2% 0% 0% -52.4%
≤90d 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 0% -16.0%
all 16 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 6% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 6% -15.0%
10% -42.7% 6% -23.1%
15% -48.3% 0% -30.5%
20% -53.3% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$39 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Poland (-2.5) May 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? May 31 $83 −$5 -6%
Spread: Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (-2.5) May 30 $64 −$63 -97%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) May 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? May 13 $26 $0 +0%
Spread: FathUnionSport (-2.5) May 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? May 11 $51 −$7 -13%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) Apr 22 $461 +$24 +5%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $457 +$3 +1%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) Apr 21 $439 +$18 +4%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $440 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: Krystianer vs Maru (BO3) - RSL Revival Group D Mar 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22? Mar 15 $261 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Prestige (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Mar 15 $206 +$55 +27%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Mar 14 $85 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $213 1h
Spread: Poland (-2.5) BUY Poland 6¢ $35 29d
Spread: Poland (-2.5) BUY Poland 6¢ $31 29d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 29d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 29d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 29d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 29d
Spread: Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (-2.5) BUY Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa 6¢ $34 30d
Spread: Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (-2.5) BUY Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa 6¢ $31 30d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 30d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $42 30d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 30d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $42 30d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 30d
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) BUY Haras El Hodood SC 2¢ $26 47d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 47d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 47d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 47d
Spread: FathUnionSport (-2.5) BUY FathUnionSport 4¢ $19 49d
Spread: FathUnionSport (-2.5) BUY FathUnionSport 4¢ $20 49d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 49d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 49d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 49d
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) BUY Valencia CF 95¢ $461 69d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $460 69d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $457 69d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) BUY Crystal Palace FC 96¢ $439 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $440 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $440 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.95 · official $212.95 (match) · 40 history records