Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc467…88e7 other 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$37
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$7
economics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage132d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $381 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $428 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $145 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $545 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $387 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $718 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $363 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $678 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $687 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $41 4h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 7h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 9h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 15h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 16h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 17h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $36 19h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 25h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 27h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 28h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 32h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 34h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 37h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 39h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $43 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $43 42h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 46h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 47h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1447 history records