Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc468…f5d3 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 27% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
weather 2% −$2
tech 2% +$6
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -3.8% -13.0% 47% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.1%
10% -21.3% 3% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 3% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage477d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $105 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 07 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Mar 20 $17 +$6 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 31h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $25 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records