Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc468…0d1b crypto 1009 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (331 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-4%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%390W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day330.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (331 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1020 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 30% -15.3%
≤30d 1020 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 30% -15.3%
≤90d 1020 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 30% -15.3%
all 1020 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 30% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover330.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 30% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 27% -23.4%
15% -34.5% 22% -30.8%
20% -40.9% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses390 / 630
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1020 / 1009
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day330.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1020 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 52¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 49¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in May? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.65 · official $7.70 (match) · 3500 history records