Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc468…009d politics 741 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,682 (+23%) realized +$13,422 · open +$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate65%442W / 233L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$1,410
other 15% +$1,263
world 10% +$513
sports 7% +$208
crypto 5% +$439
finance 1% +$32
tech 0% +$90
economics 0% −$9
culture 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 27% -8.6%
≤30d 81 +6.2% -3.9% 67% 25% -10.1%
≤90d 565 +14.9% +4.0% 65% 34% -5.8%
all 675 +20.2% +8.8% 65% 35% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 35% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 29% -12.6%
15% -11.1% 26% -21.0%
20% -19.8% 23% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$4,897
Realized+$13,422
Unrealized+$260
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses442 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions104
Markets (closed)675 / 741
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 104 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 79¢ 92¢ $316 $370 +$54 (+17%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $340 $369 +$29 (+9%)
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $335 $344 +$10 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 78¢ $225 $235 +$10 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $202 $214 +$12 (+6%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 51¢ 54¢ $180 $192 +$12 (+6%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 48¢ 46¢ $182 $175 −$8 (-4%)
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $125 $137 +$13 (+10%)
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 96¢ $103 $120 +$17 (+16%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $79 $98 +$19 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 98¢ $76 $98 +$21 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 98¢ $73 $98 +$25 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 97¢ $68 $97 +$29 (+42%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $85 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $85 $88 +$3 (+4%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 76¢ $86 $76 −$10 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $79 $74 −$5 (-6%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 55¢ 82¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+49%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+4%)
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No 85¢ 92¢ $62 $67 +$6 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $64 +$11 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $204 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Peace" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Early" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $35 −$7 -21%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F Jun 15 $57 −$6 -11%
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -43%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $340 $0 -0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -49%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will it rain in Central Park on June 9? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jun 05 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Trump say "Percent" 13+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" in June? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 05 $106 −$4 -4%
Will Trump say "Fossil" or "Fuel" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Trump say "Best of Trump" in June? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Scam" during Wisconsin events? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $29 +$59 +205%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" this week? Jun 02 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Interest rate" this week? Jun 02 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 01 $130 +$4 +3%
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? Jun 01 $291 +$19 +6%
Will Trump say "Coward" this week? Jun 01 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Trump say "Damn" this week? Jun 01 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $310 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $190 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$11 +146%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $96 +$9 +10%
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May? Jun 01 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Jun 01 $206 +$13 +6%
Will Trump say "Iwo Jima" in May? Jun 01 $76 +$1 +2%
Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Trump say "Prediction Market" in May? Jun 01 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$14 +214%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $74 +$6 +8%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Trump say "Favorite Chart" in May? Jun 01 $77 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $75 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 98¢ $171 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 98¢ $36 14h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 41h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $178 41h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $64 41h
Will Trump say "Peace" during meeting with French President? BUY No 92¢ $12 46h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F BUY No 96¢ $25 47h
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? BUY No 96¢ $24 47h
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $260 2d
Will Trump say "President Xi" during meeting with French President? BUY No 97¢ $160 2d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Trump say "Erdogan" during meeting with French President? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Trump say "Early" during meeting with French President? BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 2d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $298 3d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $42 3d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $311 3d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $11 4d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $9 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,896.65 · official $4,895.74 (match) · 3500 history records