Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc46b…eca2 other 223 markets active 4h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-2%) realized −$72 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$50
14 days+$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$54
other 30% −$3
politics 9% +$11
crypto 7% −$24
tech 5% −$5
finance 3% +$4
culture 1% −$7
economics 1% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 22% -32.3%
≤30d 44 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 20% -11.2%
≤90d 151 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 23% -7.4%
all 201 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 20% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 20% -11.7%
10% -20.2% 10% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 6% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 96
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)201 / 223
History coverage122d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 84¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+36%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes 77¢ 34¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Waymo IPO before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 58¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Remote IPO before 2027? No 71¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 72¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 55¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 52¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$16 -81%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $14 −$1 -9%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $33 −$31 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$53 +264%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $66 −$2 -4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +56%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 31 $5 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30 May 26 $5 $0 -8%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $5 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 20 $6 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? May 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 15 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 62¢ $5 3h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $6 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $6 13h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $5 24h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $5 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 42h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $18 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $3 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.51 · official $155.58 (match) · 1633 history records