Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc46d…7668
other · 71 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$18
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)53 / 71
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 18 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 61¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? No 66¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 52¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 77¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? No 74¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027? No 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 67¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+108%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 65¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Yes 90¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? No 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1 $0 -33%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +30%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -28%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $1 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 $0 +40%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +39%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 02 $1 $0 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +91%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -42%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +77%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
3Jane FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 30 $1 $0 -21%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? May 30 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Alonzo Menifield win by KO or TKO? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$1
sports 14% −$3
politics 14% +$1
world 11% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
finance 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL No 63¢ $1 6h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $1 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 14h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $1 24h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 62¢ $2 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $0 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 3d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $0 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $1 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +25.8% +13.8% 47% 47% -19.4%
≤30d 53 +8.4% -1.9% 51% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 53 +8.4% -1.9% 51% 45% -14.6%
all 53 +8.4% -1.9% 51% 45% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 45% -14.6%
10% -11.3% 38% -22.7%
15% -19.9% 34% -30.2%
20% -27.7% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.38 · official $16.62 · 282 history records