Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc46e…9ed8 sports 624 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,602 (-7%) realized −$2,736 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%239W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$459est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$158
14 days+$574
30 days−$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$2,144
other 16% −$110
crypto 4% −$801
world 2% +$264
finance 1% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +4.2% -5.7% 45% 45% -5.6%
≤30d 348 -9.2% -17.8% 39% 38% -13.4%
≤90d 608 -10.2% -18.7% 39% 38% -18.1%
all 608 -10.2% -18.7% 39% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 38% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 37% -26.0%
15% -33.6% 36% -33.1%
20% -40.1% 35% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$48 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,284
Realized−$2,736
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses239 / 369
Est. fees paid−$459
Open positions17
Markets (closed)608 / 624
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 60¢ $400 $578 +$178 (+44%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 64¢ 57¢ $298 $268 −$30 (-10%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 42¢ $16 $97 +$81 (+493%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Daniel Rincon 30¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 18¢ 17¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-42%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-59%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will France win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-71%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $77 +$97 +126%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$84 +163%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 18 $100 +$117 +116%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $50 +$75 +148%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $51 +$49 +95%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $51 +$66 +130%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Moutet vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $44 +$38 +88%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $43 +$16 +37%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$95 +94%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$23 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$182 +704%
Set Handicap: Jacquet (-1.5) vs Rottgering (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 +$55 +107%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $51 +$45 +88%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $201 +$198 +98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$51 +102%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$34 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $77 +$97 +126%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Holmgren (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $26 +$29 +112%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $51 +$37 +72%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $51 +$38 +74%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $26 +$37 +143%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 30¢ $2 19m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 30¢ $5 19m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $52 45m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 30¢ $1 46m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 30¢ $43 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 53¢ $101 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 71¢ $204 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 23¢ $52 4h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 27¢ $45 4h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 27¢ $0 4h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 26¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 40¢ $26 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 25¢ $26 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $51 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $77 19h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $51 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $52 25h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Duncan Chan 51¢ $50 26h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 26h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 66¢ $59 29h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 44¢ $49 29h
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Paul Inchauspe 45¢ $100 29h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $29 31h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $27 31h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $2 31h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $2 31h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $18 32h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $13 32h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $51 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,283.63 · official $1,283.63 (match) · 3500 history records