Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

C4 0xc46e…f364 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 581d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$83 (+10%) realized +$55 · open +$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown90%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$30

7 days−$46

14 days−$46

30 days+$42

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-65.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	6	-68.6%	-71.6%	17%	17%	+16.5%
≤90d	6	-68.6%	-71.6%	17%	17%	+16.5%
all	11	-61.6%	-65.3%	27%	18%	-3.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.3%	18%	-3.0%
10%	-68.6%	18%	-12.3%
15%	-71.6%	9%	-20.8%
20%	-74.4%	9%	-28.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$74 vs −$21 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.33 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage

Net worth$113

Realized+$55

Unrealized+$33

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)11 / 18

History coverage581d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown90%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	30¢	100¢	$10	$33	+$23 (+233%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$20	$27	+$7 (+34%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	51¢	76¢	$10	$15	+$5 (+48%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 12	$7	−$6	-98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	May 31	$100	+$89	+88%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?	Dec 24	$20	−$20	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?	Dec 24	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?	Dec 03	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin?	Dec 03	$100	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November?	Nov 12	$400	+$133	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	15¢	$7	3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	SELL No	96¢	$189	14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY No	51¢	$100	19d
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	578d
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	578d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November?	BUY Yes	75¢	$400	580d
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?	BUY Florida	24¢	$100	580d
Will Kamala do better in Georgia or Wisconsin?	BUY Wisconsin	100¢	$100	580d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.01 · official $113.13 (match) · 29 history records