Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc46f…386f sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,645 (+36%) realized +$3,551 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,678per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 589d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$2,758
other 26% +$411
sports 14% +$547
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% +16.4%
≤30d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% +16.4%
≤90d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% +16.4%
all 5 -14.6% -22.7% 60% 60% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 60% +26.6%
10% -30.1% 40% +14.5%
15% -36.9% 40% +3.5%
20% -43.1% 20% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,274 vs −$100 · ×12.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.11 per $1 lost it wins $19.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized+$3,551
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage589d
Avg bet$1,678
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,094 +$94 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,213 +$747 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,608 +$318 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $6,041 +$2,758 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,926 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,608 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 32h
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 69¢ $6,041 589d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,093.89 · official $1,093.89 (match) · 11 history records