Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc470…c792 sports 1248 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,873 (-2%) realized −$4,551 · open −$322
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%442W / 777L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$3,363est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,891now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,171
7 days−$5,944
14 days−$1,354
30 days−$11,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$7,429
other 5% +$2,550
tech 0% +$55
world 0% −$153
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -28.9% -35.6% 24% 24% -41.0%
≤30d 560 -6.3% -15.2% 34% 34% -18.7%
≤90d 1219 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% -11.7%
all 1219 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 36% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 35% -20.2%
15% -28.9% 35% -27.9%
20% -35.8% 34% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$148 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,891
Realized−$4,551
Unrealized−$322
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses442 / 777
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$3,363
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1219 / 1248
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$167
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Florent Bax 24¢ 45¢ $250 $463 +$213 (+85%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $350 $294 −$56 (-16%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Mark Ceban 14¢ 18¢ $171 $218 +$47 (+28%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Marco Cecchinato 16¢ 21¢ $120 $156 +$36 (+30%)
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 49¢ 58¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $65 $108 +$43 (+66%)
Set 1 Winner: Cecchinato vs Barrios Cecchinato 45¢ 41¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Set 1 Winner: Ceban vs Baena Ceban 36¢ 30¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Ajla Tomljanovic 39¢ 20¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Set 2 Winner: Ceban vs Baena Ceban 24¢ 22¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $15 $44 +$29 (+195%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Rio Noguchi 31¢ 0¢ $344 $1 −$343 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffon Gilles Arnaud Bailly 24¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $273 −$273 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 22 $297 −$297 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $418 +$657 +157%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $102 +$297 +291%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vitaliy Sachko vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $245 +$419 +171%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $82 −$80 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $72 +$241 +337%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $66 +$337 +509%
Fabian Marozsan vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$176 +172%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $203 +$223 +110%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $19 −$19 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $68 −$66 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $44 −$43 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $96 +$79 +83%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $31 +$48 +158%
Wong vs. Gojo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $41 +$38 +93%
Set Handicap: Lajal (-1.5) vs Pavlovic (+1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$39 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $51 +$141 +276%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$84 +83%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Hugo Grenier Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Djere vs. Houkes: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $62 +$543 +881%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $41 +$46 +114%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 21 $306 −$306 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 21 $208 −$208 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $204 −$204 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 21 $410 −$410 -100%
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 29¢ $102 9m
Set 2 Winner: Ceban vs Baena BUY Ceban 24¢ $51 10m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 39¢ $102 15m
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 49¢ $102 17m
Set 1 Winner: Ceban vs Baena BUY Ceban 36¢ $102 18m
Set 1 Winner: Cecchinato vs Barrios BUY Cecchinato 45¢ $102 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino SELL Andrea Pellegrino 88¢ $1,075 21m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Mark Ceban 16¢ $73 26m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 43¢ $153 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Mark Ceban 13¢ $103 28m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 7¢ $21 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 20¢ $51 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding SELL Federico Coria 100¢ $400 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 17¢ $20 35m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 16¢ $103 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 23¢ $102 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 39¢ $204 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi BUY Rio Noguchi 19¢ $20 51m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 6¢ $8 59m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut BUY Luka Mikrut 17¢ $102 59m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut BUY Luka Mikrut 20¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 18¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 17¢ $11 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 14¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 11¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer SELL Elias Ymer 100¢ $663 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi BUY Rio Noguchi 16¢ $22 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 15¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 26¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 9¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,891.23 · official $1,926.49 · 3500 history records