Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc474…3360 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%30W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$4
sports 23% −$6
politics 23% −$3
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
world 6% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 201 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses30 / 171
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage175d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 95¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $389 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $405 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 31 $122 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $68 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $150 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 28 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $38 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 7d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $46 15d
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $8 15d
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $39 15d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $36 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $36 30d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 41d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $43 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 81d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $34 81d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $34 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $47 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $47 82d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $45 82d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $44 82d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 82d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 82d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 82d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 82d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $42 82d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $42 83d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $34 83d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $34 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 94¢ $44 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 94¢ $44 83d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 83d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $46 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 698 history records