trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 58¢ | $47 | $33 | −$14 (-29%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 73¢ | $20 | $22 | +$2 (+11%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 74¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 74¢ | 68¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 | Under | 30¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $258 | −$7 | -3% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? | Jun 13 | $31 | −$19 | -63% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | Jun 10 | $20 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? | Jun 10 | $20 | +$3 | +15% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? | Jun 08 | $20 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? | Jun 08 | $41 | +$6 | +14% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 5? | Jun 06 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 01 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -15.8% | -23.8% | 67% | 17% | -18.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 62% | 12% | -17.4% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 62% | 12% | -17.4% |
| all | 16 | -12.1% | -20.5% | 62% | 12% | -17.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.5% | 12% | -17.4% |
| 10% | -28.1% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -35.0% | 0% | -32.6% |
| 20% | -41.4% | 0% | -39.2% |