Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc47b…0ade politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$246 (+1%) realized +$216 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$52
other 19% −$2
world 19% +$73
economics 14% −$2
sports 8% +$208
tech 7% +$61
finance 1% −$45
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +8.6% -1.7% 75% 25% -5.7%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 21% -7.0%
all 31 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 16% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 16% -8.9%
10% -15.2% 6% -17.6%
15% -23.4% 6% -25.6%
20% -30.9% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,601) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage255d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $289 $319 +$30 (+11%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $162 $161 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 42¢ 42¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $262 +$157 +60%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $395 −$45 -11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $87 +$13 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,384 +$16 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $70 −$2 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 31 $584 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1,327 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $374 +$53 +14%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 23 $84 −$2 -2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP R Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Apr 16 $200 +$11 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 16 $500 +$6 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 21 $5,039 −$68 -1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $47 +$3 +5%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $493 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Dec 24 $100 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $1,204 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $3,037 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 20 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Raiders vs. Chiefs Oct 20 $339 +$46 +14%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 18 $54 +$56 +104%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $1,969 −$2 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 16 $1,870 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 16 $221 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 2h
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 42¢ $43 19h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $164 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 70¢ $254 16d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 70¢ $96 16d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 79¢ $325 16d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 79¢ $70 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 16d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $15 19d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $14 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $99 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $39 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $995 20d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $993 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $195 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $98 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $98 28d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 35¢ $68 28d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 35¢ $70 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,327 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,327 65d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? SELL No 82¢ $77 65d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? SELL No 82¢ $2 65d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? SELL No 82¢ $3 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $174 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.85 · official $617.87 (match) · 143 history records