Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc47d…48e6 other 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+3%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$61
world 42% −$9
politics 6% +$2
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 16 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 33 +5.5% -4.5% 39% 9% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 9% -6.2%
10% -13.7% 6% -15.1%
15% -22.0% 6% -23.3%
20% -29.7% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.62 per $1 lost it wins $6.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage265d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $71 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $161 −$8 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $36 +$5 +15%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $39 +$37 +95%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 04 $2 $0 -8%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $25 +$18 +69%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $74 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $39 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $33 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $5 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $32 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $30 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $81 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $89 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.35 · official $74.24 (match) · 181 history records