Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc47d…2705 crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate83%238W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day60.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$83
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 23% -10.8%
≤30d 288 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 18% -10.7%
≤90d 288 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 18% -10.7%
all 288 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 18% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 18% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 5% -19.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses238 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage13d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day60.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$19 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$16 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1018 history records