Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc47d…eab0 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-19%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 8% −$1
other 5% +$1
economics 5% −$1
politics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 50% -29.4%
≤90d 12 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 42% -24.8%
all 12 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 42% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 42% -24.8%
10% -37.4% 33% -32.0%
15% -43.5% 17% -38.5%
20% -49.0% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? No 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $1 +$1 +53%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 07 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 07 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $1.34 (match) · 26 history records