Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc480…76b0 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-29%) realized −$245 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$56
14 days−$66
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$414
world 33% +$130
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -48.3% -53.2% 33% 33% -32.9%
≤90d 11 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 36% -39.6%
all 11 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 36% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 36% -39.6%
10% -41.8% 36% -45.4%
15% -47.4% 27% -50.7%
20% -52.6% 18% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$54 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage69d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $133 $100 −$33 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $60 +$33 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $48 +$13 +27%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 20 $81 −$34 -42%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? May 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? May 07 $173 −$173 -100%
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? May 07 $20 −$10 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $50 +$28 +55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 24 $8 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $150 +$57 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $108 7d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $93 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 33¢ $61 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $3 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $5 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $4 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $5 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $8 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $9 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? SELL Yes $12 39d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? BUY Yes $81 53d
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 53d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? BUY Yes $40 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $78 63d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 66d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 66d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? BUY Yes 17¢ $83 67d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY Yes $29 67d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY Yes $50 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 95¢ $207 67d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 67d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 67d
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.11 · official $100.11 (match) · 43 history records