Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc480…937a
sports · 558 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,788 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,541 · open −$247
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,541
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses198 / 359
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions1
Markets (closed)557 / 558
History coverage221d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 557 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$218
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 30¢ 1¢ $259 $12 −$247 (-95%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Toronto Blue Jays 20¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Santiago: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Andrea Collarini Andrea Collarini 23¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Grand Prix Hassan II: Marco Trungelliti vs Kamil Majchrzak Kamil Majchrzak 31¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Ben Shelton 20¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Cincinnati Reds 27¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Mattia Bellucci 18¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Henrique Rocha Adolfo Vallejo 31¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Tallon Griekspoor 29¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Rio Open: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Ignacio Buse Marcondes 12¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Zdenek Kolar Zdenek Kolar 30¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets New York Yankees 31¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Austin: Paula Badosa vs Bianca Andreescu Paula Badosa 29¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
BNP Paribas Open: Talia Gibson vs Ann Li Ann Li 32¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 25¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Borges 28¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Giants 33¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 34¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 7¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Texas Rangers 33¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Morelos: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Alexis Galarneau Alexis Galarneau 25¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Northern Illinois 15¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Asuncion: Franco Roncadelli vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Transylvania Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Anna Bondar Bondar 25¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Islanders vs. Canadiens Islanders 21¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $204 −$199 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $276 −$274 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $97 −$95 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $205 +$369 +180%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $220 −$215 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $209 −$204 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $304 +$505 +166%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $235 +$531 +226%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $311 +$620 +199%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $197 −$194 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $214 −$209 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $151 −$148 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $303 −$297 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 17 $194 −$190 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $204 +$518 +253%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $198 −$194 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrino May 11 $283 −$277 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $203 −$199 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce May 11 $169 −$165 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $212 +$588 +277%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $201 +$832 +413%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 16 $209 −$205 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 16 $200 +$249 +124%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 15 $135 −$132 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $208 +$218 +105%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Zeynep Sonmez vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 15 $205 −$201 -98%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 15 $207 −$204 -98%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 15 $205 −$201 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 15 $210 −$206 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 15 $209 −$206 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 14 $233 +$192 +82%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 14 $216 −$212 -98%
Tallahassee: Saba Purtseladze vs Tyler Zink Apr 14 $211 +$24 +11%
Santa Cruz: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Mena Apr 14 $251 −$246 -98%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Terence Atmane Apr 14 $260 +$247 +95%
Athletics vs. New York Mets Apr 12 $208 −$205 -98%
Sarasota: Garrett Johns vs Daniel Dutra da Silva Apr 09 $112 −$109 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Lilli Tagger vs Liudmila Samsonova Apr 09 $212 −$208 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 08 $306 −$301 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Blockx Apr 08 $150 −$149 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Apr 08 $208 +$247 +119%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Apr 08 $420 −$412 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 08 $206 −$201 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 08 $372 −$365 -98%
Flames vs. Stars Apr 08 $203 +$169 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 08 $185 −$181 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$1,359
other 0% −$329
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 30¢ $264 1h
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 22¢ $3 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 0¢ $2 9d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 22¢ $201 9d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 28¢ $97 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 33¢ $276 10d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 89¢ $574 10d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $205 10d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 37¢ $204 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 22¢ $220 11d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ $209 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros SELL Milwaukee Brewers 86¢ $809 13d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $766 13d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 32¢ $304 13d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $235 14d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals SELL San Diego Padres 83¢ $931 14d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 27¢ $311 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 35¢ $197 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 29¢ $210 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 29¢ $3 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 27¢ $151 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $102 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 26¢ $20 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $39 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 42¢ $139 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $2 26d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cincinnati Reds 27¢ $194 26d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $123 26d
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone SELL Mariano Navone 97¢ $722 26d
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone BUY Mariano Navone 27¢ $204 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 28% 28% -9.4%
≤90d 225 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 33% -13.8%
all 557 +3.2% -6.6% 36% 35% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 35% -11.1%
10% -15.6% 35% -19.6%
15% -23.7% 34% -27.4%
20% -31.2% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.07 · official $12.07 (match) · 932 history records