Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc480…7585 crypto 595 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%339W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$11
14 days−$43
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 68% -13.2%
≤30d 595 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 52% -12.2%
≤90d 595 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 52% -12.2%
all 595 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 52% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 52% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 39% -20.6%
15% -29.1% 29% -28.3%
20% -36.0% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses339 / 256
Open positions0
Markets (closed)595 / 595
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 595 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1506 history records