Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc483…64d0 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+0%) realized +$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,003per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$371
politics 34% −$55
sports 9% +$696
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -15.2% -23.3% 6% 1% -9.6%
all 137 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 7% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 7% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,476) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$8 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized+$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,003
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $714 $714 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,499 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,112 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,713 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,041 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,126 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,221 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $374 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $571 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $532 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,378 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,246 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,426 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,420 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,072 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $948 +$3 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,620 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,437 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,392 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,486 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,489 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,341 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,493 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,796 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,066 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,464 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $213 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $714 46h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $921 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $921 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,229 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,200 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,337 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,338 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,270 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,272 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,371 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,275 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,284 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,285 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,177 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $522 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.92 · official $713.92 (match) · 407 history records