Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc485…d984 world 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$4
other 24% −$3
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% +$5
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 31 +5.6% -4.4% 45% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 38 +3.9% -6.0% 42% 3% -9.5%
all 81 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage452d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $174 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $113 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $48 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 +$3 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $94 −$5 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $433 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $203 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $232 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $154 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $17 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $208 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $190 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $108 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $13 −$1 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $24 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $4 −$1 -19%
Starmer out before July? Dec 14 $31 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $112 12m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $112 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $64 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $48 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $113 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $54 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $54 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $88 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $14 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $101 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $90 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $94 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records