Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc487…ab80 crypto 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,568 (-2%) realized −$1,599 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%103W / 121L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$6,030
world 21% +$383
sports 18% −$990
other 4% −$25
finance 1% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +27.2% +15.1% 58% 55% -14.0%
≤30d 66 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 48% -7.3%
≤90d 114 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 48% -14.6%
all 224 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 38% -21.5%
10% -24.9% 31% -29.0%
15% -32.2% 25% -35.9%
20% -38.8% 18% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$122 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized−$1,599
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses103 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions5
Markets (closed)224 / 230
History coverage114d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $197 $206 +$9 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 79¢ 68¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $93 $114 +$21 (+23%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 82¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+65%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $155 +$43 +28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $171 +$85 +50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$27 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $157 −$43 -27%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $123 +$75 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$71 -91%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $226 +$286 +127%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$20 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$36 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $146 +$54 +37%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$38 +75%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $28 +$72 +256%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $378 −$375 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$18 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$103 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $157 +$43 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $603 −$603 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,017 +$97 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $588 +$970 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $941 −$930 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$43 -43%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $703 +$110 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $291 −$77 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,005 −$5 -0%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $894 −$81 -9%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $528 +$294 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$7 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 08 $20 −$10 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $428 +$173 +40%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 +$114 +280%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $15 −$14 -91%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $882 +$126 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $199 4m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $151 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 35m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $78 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $78 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 50m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $97 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $18 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $81 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $480 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $146 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.58 · official $531.58 (match) · 831 history records